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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still