Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
